Improved performance‐based seismic assessment of buildings by utilizing Bayesian statistics          下载免费PDF全文

Omid Esmaili  Lisa Grant Ludwig  Farzin Zareian 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(4):581-597

This paper addresses two important issues of concern to practicing engineers and researchers alike in application of performance‐based seismic assessment (PBSA) methodology on buildings: (i) the number of ground motion records required to exercise PBSA—current practice (FEMA P‐58‐1) requires eleven or more pairs of motions for this purpose, and (ii) the time and effort associated with performing the number of nonlinear response history analyses required to exercise PBSA. We present a method for exercising of PBSA that employs classical linear modal analysis to develop a first estimate (i.e., a priori) of probability distribution of loss, followed by utilizing Bayesian statistics to update this estimate using estimates of loss obtained by utilizing a small number of nonlinear response history analyses of a detailed model of the building (i.e., posterior). The proposed technique is used to assess the distribution of monetary loss of two case studies, a 4‐story reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame building and a 20‐story steel moment‐resisting frame building, both located in Los Angeles, for a ground motion hazard with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The efficiency of the proposed PBSA method is demonstrated by showing the similarity between the distribution of monetary loss at each story of case study buildings obtained from the traditional/sophisticated PBSA methodology and the proposed PBSA method in this study. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Using meteorological observer data to compare wind erosion during two great droughts in eastern Australia; the World War II Drought (1937–1946) and the Millennium Drought (2001–2010)          下载免费PDF全文

Tadhg O'Loingsigh  Grant H. McTainsh  Katherine Parsons  Craig L. Strong  Phil Shinkfield  Nigel J. Tapper 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(1):123-130

Australian meteorological observers started using the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) weather coding system in the 1950s. This system is still in use around the world today. However, observing and recording the weather in an organized and systematic manner had been ongoing for over 100 years prior to the adoption of this coding system, and much like Australia, most countries will have historical meteorological records. In this paper we compare the wind erosion of two of the greatest droughts in Australian recorded history; the World War II (WWII) Drought (1937–1945) and the Millennium Drought (2001–2009). To do this we analysed previously unavailable meteorological observer records from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (ABM). Wind erosion records, mostly in long‐hand written form, were translated to the modern WMO coding system for the WWII Drought and compared with the wind erosion of Australia's recently‐ended Millennium Drought, one of the longest and harshest on record. We quantify wind erosion using Dust Event Days (DED) and a modified version of a published Dust Storm Index (DSI) to show that wind erosion during the WWII Drought was up to 4.6 times higher than during the Millennium Drought. This study has international significance because it demonstrates a methodology for tracking changes in wind erosion over the past 75 years based on observer records available in every country with a history of organized weather observation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Drivers of Australian dust: a case study of frontal winds and dust dynamics in the lower lake Eyre basin          下载免费PDF全文

Matthew Baddock  Katherine Parsons  Craiq Strong  John Leys  Grant McTainsh 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(14):1982-1988

The roles of pre‐frontal, frontal and post‐frontal winds as the primary wind systems for dust entrainment and transport in Australia are well established. While the relevance of each system has been observed across different wind erosion events in central Australia, the entrainment of dust by all three winds during the passage of an individual front has not been demonstrated until now. Synoptic information, satellite aerosol and imagery, meteorological and dust concentration data are presented for a single case study erosion event in the lower Lake Eyre Basin. This event demonstrates variable dust transport in three different directions from one of the southern Hemisphere's most significant source regions, and the changing nature of the active dust pathways during the passage of a frontal system. While only a single dust event is considered, the findings show the complexity of mineral aerosol emission and transport patterns even within an individual dust outbreak. For the lower Lake Eyre Basin, this appreciation of pathway behaviour is significant for better understanding the role of aeolian inputs from the dominant Australian source to surrounding marine systems. In a wider context, the findings exhibit the detailed insights into major dust source dynamics that can be obtained from high resolution spatial and particularly temporal data, as used in combination. This work highlights the importance of adequately resolved data for the accurate determination of dust entrainment and transport patterns of major dust sources. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Water quality in a polluted lowland stream with chronically depressed dissolved oxygen: Causes and effects     

Robert J. Wilcock  Graham B. McBride  John W. Nagels  Grant L. Northcott 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(2):277-288

Abstract

The Whangamaire Stream (North Island, New Zealand) has high concentrations of nitrate nitrogen (NO^? ₃‐N), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD₅), and Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) as a result of catchment land use practices. The lower reaches of the stream drain intensively farmed land and have dissolved oxygen (DO) levels of 10–50% saturation. The dominant riparian vegetation, Apium nodiflorum, provides a large organic loading by intercepting nutrients in run‐off and then decaying in the stream channel. Water quality and reaeration aspects of the stream were studied in order to explain the observed low DO levels. Measurements of the reaeration coefficient at 20°C, K₂ ²⁰, using methyl chloride (CH₃Cl) as a gas tracer, yielded values of 1.1–3.0 d^?1 for the upper part of the study reach and 15.5–16.2 d^?1 for the lower reach (overall average 12.5 ± 2.5 d^?1). These were in agreement with values inferred from single‐station diurnal curve analysis, which also showed that respiration was dominant in the lower reach where photo‐synthetic activity was inhibited by shade. The relatively large reaeration coefficients ensure that parts of the stream do not become anoxic at night time. Better riparian management and reduced nutrient inputs are likely to improve stream water quality.  相似文献   

Challenges associated with pre-border management of biofouling on oil rigs     

Grant A. Hopkins  Barrie M. Forrest 《Marine pollution bulletin》2010,60(11):1924-1929

The potential for oil rigs to transport diverse, reef-like communities around the globe makes them high risk vectors for the inadvertent spread of non-indigenous species (NIS). This paper describes two case studies where a suite of pre-border management approaches was applied to semi-submersible drilling rigs. In the first case study, a drilling rig was defouled in-water prior to departure from New Zealand to Australia. Risk mitigation measures were successful in reducing biosecurity risks to the recipient region, but they resulted in the unintentional introduction of the non-indigenous brown mussel (Perna perna) to New Zealand when the rig was defouled in-water by divers. In the second case study, lessons learned from this high-profile incursion resulted in a more structured approach to pre-border management, and this serves as a useful template for future rig transfers.  相似文献   

Gendered Spaces of Informal Entrepreneurship in Soweto,South Africa   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Richard Grant 《Urban geography》2013,34(1):86-108

Abstract

The full diversity of economic activities in the informal economy is not well understood. The apartheid legacy of limiting informal entrepreneurship explains the most obvious geographical patterns in South Africa. After a decade and a half since the end of apartheid, however, knowledge about the places from which informal entrepreneurs operate is incomplete. Retailing is overemphasized and production firm entrepreneurs, both male and female, remain a neglected spatiality. This study reports on a survey of 100 firms in Soweto and in-depth interviews with 30 firm owners. The findings challenge the representations of isolated urban entrepreneurs dependent on inherited social capital and of women's exclusive engagement in retail. Entrepreneurs create their own social capital in work-related realms, but there are important gender differences. More finely tuned conceptualizations of entrepreneurs and of gendered working spaces need to be developed so that policy does not perpetuate unitary myths and incomplete spatial representations. [Key words: entrepreneurship, Soweto, informal economy, gender.]  相似文献   

Soil organic carbon enrichment of dust emissions: magnitude,mechanisms and its implications for the carbon cycle     

Nicholas P. Webb  Craig L. Strong  Adrian Chappell  Samuel K. Marx  Grant H. McTainsh 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2013,38(14):1662-1671

Soil erosion is an important component of the global carbon cycle. However, little attention has been given to the role of aeolian processes in influencing soil organic carbon (SOC) flux and the release of greenhouse gasses, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), to the atmosphere. Understanding the magnitude and mechanisms of SOC enrichment in dust emissions is necessary to evaluate the impact of wind erosion on the carbon cycle. This research examines the SOC content and enrichment of dust emissions measured using Big Spring Number Eight (BSNE) wind‐vane samplers across five land types in the rangelands of western Queensland, Australia. Our results show that sandy soils and finer particulate quartz‐rich soils are more efficient at SOC emission and have larger SOC dust enrichment than clay‐rich aggregated soils. The SOC enrichment ratios of dusts originating from sites with sand‐rich soil ranged from 2·1–41·9, while the mean enrichment ratio for dusts originating from the clay soil was 2·1. We hypothesize that stronger inter‐particle bonds and the low grain density of the aggregated clay soil explain its reduced capacity to release SOC during saltation, relative to the particulate sandy soils. We also show that size‐selective sorting of SOC during transport may lead to further enrichment of SOC dust emissions. Two dust samples from regional transport events were found to contain 15–20% SOC. These preliminary results provide impetus for additional research into dust SOC enrichment processes to elucidate the impact of wind erosion on SOC flux and reduce uncertainty about the role of soil erosion in the global carbon cycle. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Social vulnerability assessment for mitigation of local earthquake risk in Los Angeles County     

Gabriela R. Noriega  Lisa Grant Ludwig 《Natural Hazards》2012,64(2):1341-1355

Comprehensive hazard mitigation involves (1) understanding natural systems, (2) assessment of interactions within and between social systems and the built environment, and (3) understanding geo-spatial processes. To achieve this, local emergency managers must recognize variability in vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. In this study, we assess whether cities in Los Angeles County are subject to disproportionally greater earthquake losses modeled from a M7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault. Furthermore, we analyze whether the variation in demographic and socioeconomic characteristics across cities is associated with the earthquake losses. We were able to explain 23.2?% of variance in economic losses by looking at the percentage of minority residents, income, and renter residents in a city [F(3,84)?=?8.47; p?<?.001]. Cities with primarily minority residents had greater economic losses when compared to cities with primarily White residents (b?=?1.01; p?<?.001). When looking at the association between demographic predictors and potential casualty rate, the percentage of Hispanic residents was positively associated with the potential casualty rate. We argue that knowledge of the relationship between earthquake hazard and the demographic characteristics of people in the area at risk is essential to mitigate the local impact from earthquakes. In other words, we apply social vulnerability assessment as part of a comprehensive risk management framework to accelerate recovery after an event. Local policy makers and the private sector can use this approach to gain a better understanding of a city??s social vulnerability and adapt their preparedness efforts accordingly.  相似文献   

Glacier recession and human vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed of the Cordillera Blanca, Peru   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Jeffrey T. Bury  Bryan G. Mark  Jeffrey M. McKenzie  Adam French  Michel Baraer  Kyung In Huh  Marco Alfonso Zapata Luyo  Ricardo Jes��s G��mez L��pez 《Climatic change》2011,105(1-2):179-206

Glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru, are undergoing rapid retreat, in large part due to climate change. These changes are significantly altering water availability in the region and pose critical risks to local populations that are highly dependent on these resources for livelihoods. We examine these issues through an interdisciplinary and linked evaluation of hydrological change and livelihood vulnerability in the Yanamarey watershed. Physical observations of the Yanamarey glacier show acceleration in frontal retreat at a rate of 8 m decade^???1 since 1970, accompanied by total volume loss on the order of 0.022 km³. Hydrological and hydrochemical analyses document a possible transformation of stream flow over the past decade as the seasonal storage capacity of the glacier has degraded. Recent stream discharge measurements from the proglacial lake below the glacier are more coincident with the highly variable seasonal precipitation than they were during the 1998?C1999 hydrological year. Local household perceptions of glacier recession and seasonal hydrological variability agree with this trend, which is increasing human vulnerability in the watershed. Household case-study survey results demonstrate that shifting water resources, increasing weather extremes and climate-related threats to tourism are all new vectors of vulnerability for household livelihoods.  相似文献   

Structure and evolution of mass transport deposits in the South Caspian Basin,Azerbaijan     

Steve E. J. Richardson  Richard J. Davies  Mark B. Allen  Simon F. Grant 《Basin Research》2011,23(6):702-719

The Quaternary to late Pliocene sedimentary succession along the margin of the South Caspian Basin contains numerous kilometre‐scale submarine slope failures, which were sourced along the basin slope and from the inclined flanks of contemporaneous anticlines. This study uses three‐dimensional (3D) seismic reflection data to visualise the internal structure of 27 mass transport deposits and catalogues the syndepositional structures contained within them. These are used to interpret emplacement processes occurring during submarine slope failure. The deposits consist of three linked structural domains: extensional, translational and compressive, each containing characteristic structures. Novel features are present within the mass transport deposits: (1) a diverging retrogression of the headwall scarp; (2) the absence of a conventional headwall scarp around growth stratal pinch outs; (3) restraining bends in the lateral margin; (4) a downslope increase in the throw of thrust faults. The results of this study shed light on the deformation that occurred during submarine slope failure, and highlight an important geological process in the evolution of the South Caspian Basin margin.  相似文献